Top 25 Forecasts

This is a dangerous spot for LSU as Ole Miss HC Nutt has upset the #2, #1 (twice) and #4 teams incl a win on the road over #1 LSU when he was the HC at Ark in ’07. These games have been close recently with 5 of L/8 decided by a FG or less. LY LSU mismanaged the clock late wasting :17 before calling a TO driving to the UM6 with :01 left and spiking the ball which gave the Rebels a 25-23 win. Ole Miss is playing its 4th road gm in 6 wks and took a pounding LW at Tenn losing 52-14 (outgained 441-295) as QB Masoli was coming off a concussion and threw 3 int with just 80 yds passing. LSU destroyed ULM 51-0 in their final home night gm LW scoring 31 pts off of ULM TO’s. This home finale is a 2:30 Central start (27-1 in Sat night HG’s, 7-4 in afternoon HG’s under Miles). While the Rebels don’t have the horses to get the huge upset win I’ll call for it to be closer than what many people suspect.

This will mark the 104th edition of the “Big Game”. LW Cal was a missed 29 yd FG (made 24 yd FG on previous play but Cal’s K was called for a false start) away from pulling out the huge upset of #1 Oregon. They held UO to a ssn-low 324 yds (15 pts, 40 under their ssn avg) while all’g just 1 TD on def (UO had 64 yd PR TD). Their offense however, was unable to get anything going throughout as they were also held to a ssn-low 192 yds. While Stanford also endured a battle LW vs a solid ASU def, QB Luck overcame some early TO’s to lead a GW drive late in the 17-13 victory (SU held ASU to 268 yds). Under Tedford, the Bears have gone 7-1 SU vs Stanford and Cal escaped with the 34-28 win LY. While Cal’s road struggles have been heavily publicized (outscored 47-9 and outgained 400-319), they are a strong home team (40-10 avg, 365-204 yd edge) and while the loss to Oregon LW was devastating it will breed confidence for this game and they will keep it close.

LW Nebraska got 1 step closer to winning the North by bullying Kansas 20-3. The Huskers actually had 20-5 FD and 397-87 yd edges over the Hawks but the conservative gm plan due to QB Martinez’s not fully 100% ankle kept it relatively close. A&M meanwhile won its 3rd straight with QB Tannehill at the helm as they erased a 16 pt 1H deficit in a 42-30 win at Baylor. The Bears missed 2 FG’s, had another blk’d and missed an xp as A&M was outgained 516-423. A&M now finds themselves just 1 gm back in the South and Tannehill is avg 317 ypg (68%) with a 7-3 ratio in his 3 starts but will have a tough time here going against NU’s #1 NCAA pass eff D (140, 48%, 10-16 ratio) led by future #1 DC CB Amukamara. Nebraska clinches the North while knocking the Ags out of the South race.

MSU is off a bye and now has a 2 gm season to win a piece of their 1st Big 10 championship S/’90. Meanwhile LW on a windy, rainy day when both teams combined for 10 TO’s Purdue lost 27-16 to Michigan (outgained 383-259) and they need to win their L/2 to become bowl elig. The Boilers started their 4th QB Siller who re-injured his foot after 1 play and Robinson and Henry combined to hit 17-32 for 129 with 2 int. Henry actually started at RB vs UM but he could reclaim the QB job here. On defense with 5 tfl vs Mich DE Kerrigan now leads the NCAA with 23.5. Purdue has dropped 3 straight to MSU after winning 7 of 8 and LY MSU was outgained (524-362) and outFD’d (28-12) but came back from 11 in the 4Q. The Spartans end the Boilers’ bowl hopes and set up a crucial game next week on the road in Happy Valley.

The Razorbacks have won 13 of the L/15 gms in this series and LY Mallett threw for 313 yds and 5 TD’s in Ark’s 42-21 home win but MSU had a 327-83 yd rush edge. Last time in Starkville, despite jumping out to a 14-0 lead, UA’s 9 game win streak vs MSU came to an end (31-28) as Ark missed a tying 46 yd FG on the last play. Ark is off a 58-21 win over UTEP and their only losses TY are to then-#1 AL and current #2 Aub, so they are thinking NY’s Day bowl. Mallett is avg 297 ypg (67%) with a 24-8 ratio. MSU is off a 30-10 loss to AL (outgained 452-299) which ended a 6 gm win streak by the Bulldogs. QB Relf (100 ypg, 53%, 7-4) struggled and was replaced by bkup Russell (79 ypg, 58%, 5-6) late last gm. Even with big rivalry games on deck for both teams, this game is very important for SEC bowl positioning and the Hogs get the key road win.

LY Missouri trailed 17-10 at HT but finished with a 539-336 yd edge in a 34-24 win over Iowa St and did win their last time here 52-20. Last week ISU was dominated at the LOS by a fired up Colorado tm who had 8 sks and held the Cyclones to -6 yds rushing in a 34-14 win in interim HC Cabral’s debut. QB Arnaud (knee vs CU) is OFY leaving Tiller (208, 51%, 1-0 ratio) to start his 1st gm since beating Neb in Lincoln LY. Meanwhile Mizzou snapped a 2 gm skid to beat Kansas St 38-28. The Tigers dodged a bullet when K-St fmbl’d it away at the MO1 late 1H and MO also had a 53 yd FR TD in the 3Q.  Mizzou QB Gabbert (240, 62%, 14-5) is surprisingly the Big 12’s lowest rated QB on a winning team but the Tigers should comfortably keep the ‘Clones out of the post season as Mizzou still has aspirations for another DD win season (3rd in 4 years).